Перспективы развития экономики СССР предперестроечного периода в оценках зарубежных аналитиков

Abstract

The works of foreign researchers related to the pre-perestroika period of the USSR, pay considerable attention to the analysis of the prospects of further development of the USSR economy in the context of the obvious decline in economic growth rates. The prospects of economic development of the USSR were discussed by many well-known Western analysts, such as Alec Nove, Michael Ellman, Hans-Hermann Höhmann and others. The works of these analysts allow clarifying the possible ways of development of the Soviet economy before perestroika in relation to the prevailing views in the domestic research literature, as well as assessing the prognostic potential of foreign Sovietology. At the same time, of course, it should be taken into account that adherence to ideological imperatives was to some extent inherent not only to domestic, but also to foreign researchers. The work uses general scientific methods of research, as well as methods of historical and economic analysis. The sources of information were the data of official statistics and the works of foreign analysts. Analysis of foreign works shows that Western researchers mainly supported the points of view according to which conservative modernization, the neo-Stalinist model, liberal modernization, and broad liberal modernization could be the development models for the Soviet economy. At the same time, conservative modernization was assumed to be the most likely development scenario. As a result of the analysis, it was found that most reputable foreign Sovietologists did not assume the elimination of the planned system in the USSR in the coming years and believed that it could last
another 10–15 years without major upheavals.