Эволюция научной парадигмы построения и статистического изучения исторических временных рядов

Abstract

The aim of the study is to justify the need to form a methodology for statistical research of historical time series of macroindicators of Russia, which is achieved through a critical analysis of the work of researchers who used long time series as an evidence base. When preparing the material, monographs, collections of statistical tables and graphs, and other publications in the open access were used in which long time series were discussed. The following methods of study were chosen: historical, comparison, analysis and synthesis, graphic and tabular. Considering the publications of scientists and researchers led to the formation of an analytical table, which presents the pros and cons of the considered works in the context of three stages of statistical research: 1 — statistical observation; 2 — statistical grouping; 3 — statistical analysis. At the same time, in almost all the works under consideration, the first and second stages of statistical research are highlighted (traced), but in most cases, the authors do not use econometric modeling and multidimensional statistical methods to process long time series, i.e. the third stage is not actually performed. This makes it necessary to form a methodology for the statistical study of historical time series. As a result of a critical analysis of scientific (pseudo-scientific) works by domestic and foreign authors, the need to form a methodology for statistical research of historical time series of macroindicators of Russia was justified.