Возможности и недостатки экспертного прогнозирования результатов выборов (на примере выборов депутатов Государственной Думы Федерального Собрания Российской Федерации восьмого созыва)

Abstract

In the article, based on a comparison of a number of political forecasts of the results of the elections to the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation in 2021 and the officially published results, the authors demonstrated the possibilities and disadvantages of predicting the results of the vote. The problem is that external pressure on Russia (especially after the events related to the conduct of a special military operation in Ukraine in 2022 and the imposition of sanctions against many Russian officials and business structures), the polarization of citizens’ opinions, the development of modern technologies, the emergence of many “experts” who do not always have a goal to predict accurate and truthful results, the desire and attempts to manipulate people’s opinions — all these factors complicate the forecasting process, and it is becoming increasingly difficult for citizens to navigate the flow of information before elections. Thus, it is possible to formulate the following research aim: to identify possible problems of expert forecasting and to develop author’s recommendations for improving forecasts in the political sphere. At the same time, the main attention in the article is paid to the analysis of the experts opinions (15 people) regarding the proposals formulated in advance and submitted to them for evaluation by the authors. Using the methods of traditional document analysis, comparative analysis and expert survey, the authors have developed and verified proposals for improving the forecasting of election results, which can be applied in the electoral process not only in Russia, but also in other countries, and at different levels (municipal, regional and state). The results of the research may be of interest to a wide range of readers: researchers, sociologists and political scientists, students of various fields of training and specialties, as well as anyone interested in the structure of the electoral system of Russia and the use of expert assessments in election campaigns. The article was prepared as a part of a planned study of the discipline “Political Science” at the Civil Defense Academy EMERCOM of Russia and the scientific school “Public Policy and Management”, functioning on a permanent basis at the Academy.