Системные конструкты международной безопасности: индикаторы социальных изменений как путь к разрешению конфликтов

Abstract

This article proposes systemic constructs of international security (SCIS) to determine the degree of international tensions in the world, based on several types of data: indicators on the social development of states; the degree of resource concentration amongst elites; military and information power. The research methodology includes a systemic approach that makes explicit the interrelation of economic, political, social, and military factors, thereby producing a stabilization or destabilization of the international situation. In assessing the increasingly complex reality of international security, a dialectical method was used. SCIS can be defined as the minimum set of interrelated parameters of the state (economic, political, military, cultural, scientific, environmental), keeping them in a ratio that meets the demands of social development while minimizing the risks of destabilizing social systems. Finally, the authors made a preliminary SCIS assessment for six countries: five (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States) have officially announced successful nuclear weapons tests. The sixth, India, has a nuclear program as well as significant economic potential and the second largest population in the world. Based on the analysis, the authors offer proposals for determining a state’s military danger index. The task of democratic institutions is to develop and improve an analytical model so as to combine the monitoring of dangerous trends with practical readiness to overcome them globally. The question of what socio-political actors can provide for the SCIS is open for discussion.