Общественные потери от пандемии коронавируса через призму стоимости человеческой жизни

Abstract

The study is devoted to estimating the societal cost of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) mortality in 2020 using the value of statistical life. According to official statistics, most deaths due to coronavirus are observed among older people. Since there is no consensus in the current scientific literature on whether value of life estimates need to be age-adjusted for purposes of cost-benefit analysis, both age-adjusted and age-invariant estimates are provided for comparison. The article presents three approaches to determining societal costs of the pandemic: using the average value of statistical life for the entire population, using a decreasing coefficient (senior discount) for older ages, and considering age-adjusted estimates of the value of statistical life, depending on life expectancy within age cohorts. According to the calculation results, the social damage from mortality due to COVID-19 in 2020 amounted to 41,721, 32,956-34,522, and 15,5 trillion rubles using the approaches mentioned above, respectively. All these values are significantly higher than the economic damage, amounting to just under 1 trillion rubles, according to Rospotrebnadzor. This example demonstrates the potential of using the value of statistical life estimates to analyze changes in social welfare and clearly illustrates how underestimating such changes distort overall damage estimates. The research results can be used in public administration and for scientific purposes for a comprehensive analysis of the coronavirus pandemic consequences for Russian society.