Dynamics of Labour Productivity of Medical Personnel in the Russian Federation Health Care

Abstract

The present study touches upon one of the debatable problems in health economics — the labour productivity of medical staff. Despite the existing palette of opinions on approaches to its measurement, there is no doubt about the value of this method in assessing the efficiency of personnel performance in any sphere of activity. The medical industry in this sense is not an exception. The authors’ appeal to this area of scientific research is defined by the special attention of public authorities of all levels to the issue of increasing labour productivity in the economy of our country. Its solution involves the current assessment and monitoring of this indicator. Total transition to market relations of all sectors, including helping industries has only aggravated this problem. At the time of writing this study among domestic publications there is a shortage of works in which it is possible to find a reflection of long-term dynamics and forecast of labour productivity of medical personnel of domestic health care. The aim of the study is to analyze the dynamics and forecast labour productivity of medical staff in Russian healthcare. To make a 5-year forecast, the authors applied the method of time series analysis and cross-platform econometric analysis software Gretl. As a result of the present study, it is proved that from 2011 to 2022 the productivity of doctors decreased by 3.7% or in absolute terms by 74 (number of visits per 1 doctor), the number of doctors increased insignificantly by 0.3% (2216 people), and the attendance of medical organizations decreased by 2.1% (31821.2 people). On average, physician productivity decreased by 0.3% each year, the number of physicians increased by 0.1% each year, and attendance decreased by 0.2%. A significant decline was observed during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. The 5-year forecast of this indicator obtained in this study illustrates a possible positive trend of this indicator, symbolizing the restoration of stable operation of health care facilities after the difficult period of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.