A Study of the Potential of ChatGPT-5 for Econometric Modelling of Organizational Innovation Performance: Methodological Foundations and Comparative Analysis of Experimental Results
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.55959/MSU2070-1381-115-2026-129-146Keywords:
Innovation activity, artificial intelligence, ChatGPT-5, innovation, modelling, scenarios.Abstract
This article explores the feasibility of using the ChatGPT artificial intelligence (AI) for econometric modelling of Russian organizations’ innovation performance. The study’s relevance stems from the need to modernize traditional econometric tools to handle growing data sets. The aim of the study is to provide methodological justification and experimental verification of the feasibility of using ChatGPT-5 for comprehensive econometric modelling of organizations’ innovation performance. The methodological framework was based on a comparative approach implemented using official Rosstat data for 2010–2024. The experiment included a correlation and regression analysis for three key indicators: the organization’s level of innovation performance, the volume of innovative product output, and the number of advanced manufacturing technologies developed. A total of 15 observations were conducted on three indicators. Calculation results obtained in the standard Excel Data Analysis package were compared with ChatGPT-5 analytics generated through the Python interpreter. The experiment confirmed the complete identity of the quantitative calculations between the Excel Data Analysis package and the AI model. ChatGPT-5 enabled the accurate interpretation of statistical metrics (p-values, R-squared, etc.), identified limitations of regression models, and generated recommendations for their improvement. It was found that the key drivers of organizational innovation are innovation expenditures in Russian organizations, the Inventive Activity Index (patent activity), and federal research funding. In conclusion, three scenarios for the development of organizational innovation through 2035 were proposed. It is concluded that ChatGPT-5 is highly applicable as an intelligent assistant in econometric modelling, provided that methodological limitations are observed.
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