Agent-Based Demographic Model of the Far East as a Tool to Support Management Decision Making
Keywords:
Agent-based modeling, artificial society, strategic planning, demographic forecast, regional management, Far EastAbstract
Scientific validity is one of the key requirements for strategic planning documents, enshrined at the level of federal legislation. Ensuring scientific validity requires the development and implementation of special tools in the system of state and municipal government that can provide decision makers with both information about the current state of the control object and scenario forecasts for its development, taking into account various options for managerial impacts. The choice of forecasting tools is not regulated by law and is carried out by the authorities independently, which leads to inconsistency in forecasts of various levels and casts doubt on the achievability of target indicators. The use of agent-based models as a decision support tool makes it possible to test management decisions on an artificial society and forecast socio-economic dynamics in a comprehensive manner, simultaneously at all levels of management: from an individual to a region, district, country. The purpose of this article is to characterize the functionality of the agent-based demographic model of the Far East, developed at the Federal Autonomous Scientific Institution “Eastern State Planning Center”, for use by governments at various levels. To achieve this purpose, the article reveals the conceptual scheme of the agent-based model, describes the features of its software implementation, substantiates exogenously controlled parameters and presents the corresponding interactive controls that form the user interface of the model. The simulation results can be used in the preparation of strategic planning documents and regional development programs, in particular to develop a forecast of the population of the region, a forecast of the balance of labor resources, a forecast of socio-economic development, planning activities to create jobs and other activities of state and regional programs to promote employment. This tool can be used as well to conduct scenario experiments and substantiate the economic efficiency of the regulatory impact.
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